Opinion & Analysis
Can Spieth follow in Rory’s footsteps?
It’s that time of year again—a strange period where Tiger Woods’ unofficial 18-man event carries nearly as much clout in the World Golf Rankings as his own actual PGA Tour tournament in July.
So thank goodness Jordan Spieth decided to set the world ablaze.
The 21-year-old, the butt of thousands of drinking age jokes (seriously it got really annoying), stormed his way to victory at the Australian Open, posting a final-round 63 in breezy conditions to finish six shots ahead. And then of course there was the encore at Woods’ close get-together, where Spieth smoked the host by 26 shots, and everybody else by at least 10.
The American wunderkind has the golf world buzzing. Already considered a future flag bearer for the United States, Spieth and his recent results have left the golf establishment yearning for 2015 to see what this Texas boy wonder can do next.
And with some believing majors will be in his near future, an important question has started to pop up: Will Spieth’s upcoming season roughly match Rory McIlroy’s sensational 2014?
On the outset, it’s not an unjustified inquiry based on these recent events. The round of the year could very well be that 63. And Spieth’s total victory margin of 16 in consecutive weeks is a feat Woods himself has only reached twice.
But the question is presumptuous. It assumes that Spieth holds a real possibility of matching McIlroy’s recent exploits, when the truth is that the chances are exceedingly unlikely.
That’s right, the precious young American is, in essence, a long shot to follow in McIlroy’s 2014 footsteps. And there’s an ample view to see why.
For one, the increased hype hasn’t been entirely organic. Sure, the actual dominance of these two performances of course factored heavily into the rising expectations, but there’s no doubt the similarities between McIlroy’s end to 2013 and Spieth’s recent surge–namely their winning the Australian Open following disappointing seasons in the public eye–also aided in this production. Spieth was asked about this similarity in his post-tournament press conference in Australia, and some writers have brought it up since. And it serves no purpose but to add phony fuel to the Spieth expectation machine for 2015. It’s a downright lazy way to foster support for Spieth 2015, as any matching facts between McIlroy’s and Spieth’s Aussie victories are pure coincidences, not portenders of the latter’s future performance.
As for those dominating performances, let’s be realistic about the true nature of these tournaments. The Australian Open contains big names at the top, but little overall depth. And Woods’ event, while boasting a strong field, is a relaxed atmosphere with its unofficial status, contains less than 20 competitors and is in a spot in December when golfer motivation is alarmingly low. These were still impressive performances with extraordinary winning margins, but when you shine the light closer these weren’t exactly world-class events Spieth stormed through.
All of this brings more of a realistic shade to those 2015 ambitions, but to truly comprehend Spieth’s long odds, we have to understand just how special McIlroy’s 2014 campaign turned out. No, it’s not an all-time great season—Tiger has at least a few himself that he could say were better—but the numbers are staggering. In 24 total events, four wins, including two majors and the European Tour’s flagship event, 17 top-10s—a few admittedly backdoor—and one lone finish outside of the top-25. The wins, and the magnitude of the triumphs, are what catch the headlines, (and deservedly so), but the lack of truly disastrous results adds worth to the season’s value.
As Alex Myers noted, McIlroy went a whole year in golf and had one truly bad week. That’s incredible.
McIlroy posted this set of performances at 25, while Spieth must strive for those marks as he enters his age-21 season—a near impossible proposition.
Over the past 40 years, no single 21-year-old has put together a season that is an undisputed equal of what McIlroy pieced out in 2014. Woods and Seve Ballesteros are the only two who can claim age-21 seasons that “roughly match” Rory’s 2014—Woods with his four wins and one major in 1997 and Ballesteros with a five-win campaign in 1978. Otherwise nothing comes close to the McIlroy 2014 standard we are looking to reach here.
The next best seasons in this time span belong to Sergio Garcia (three wins, 11 top-10s in 2001), Adam Scott (two wins, nine top-10s in 2002) and Robert Gamez (two wins in 1990). While excellent campaigns from this trio, these don’t quite fit the criteria.
The picking here is slim then, with those age-21 players accomplishing roughly matching seasons to McIlroy 2014 once every 20 years. And the players on the outer section of the orbit are just as pared down.
If anybody could crack into this 21 group, namely the Woods-Ballesteros section, Spieth, based on his talent, is near the top of the list. But he would have to accomplish something that is done basically once every generation, a daunting task even for a player of Spieth’s ability.
And there’s a common theme among this quintet of 21-year-old achievers: They were all long drivers at the time of the season in question—with Woods and Ballesteros at the very top in this category.
That is probably not a coincidence.
Experience is a tough factor to measure in a golfer’s performance, but at age 21 every player lacks it to a large degree, and that deficiency likely hampers any young gun on the course. The long ball is the main way to overcome this disadvantage youth presents—course knowledge and strategy are overrated when you can hit your approach from 30 yards closer—and if you can’t pipe it deep, the trail to early domination becomes a lot more perilous.
Spieth is not a long-hitter by Tour standards, and is of course nowhere near Ballesteros-Woods. The 21-year-old is decidedly average in distance, finishing 89th in the category among 177 qualifying PGA Tour players in 2014 and 80th in a set of 180 the previous season.
All of this presents him another significant obstacle in soaring to Rory-like heights in 2014. Not only must the Texan pull off a once-in-a-generation feat, he has to do so while lacking a main attribute of all the previous men who accomplished something special at age 21.
Matters aren’t looking too good then in trying to reach the McIlroy standard.
Spieth no doubt has a bright future in this game, and at the very least his floor in 2015, and going forward, will be quite high. His game is as all-around as it gets, a circumstance that should shield him from any truly abysmal seasons.
The McIlroy-like visions may not be met, but Spieth’s 2015 won’t be an absolute bust.
With the 21-year-old, the expectations should be high, but fans and media tend to get carried away with this American darling.
Following a rookie year in which he became the youngest winner on the PGA Tour since the 1930s, Spieth was considered a closer. A year later, losing efforts at the Masters and Players Championship were enough to convince observers to flip-flop and call Spieth “the great player who couldn’t close.”
It’s fair to anticipate another victory or two from Spieth in 2015; a major might easily be there for the taking as well. But there’s no need to panic if he doesn’t win, and it’s especially useless to fret if his season doesn’t come close to resembling the success of McIlroy’s 2014.
Spieth is for sure the leader of the American revolution in the professional level, just don’t expect it to be a short battle.
As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!
Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.
Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.
One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?
Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.
Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.
Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”
For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…
Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.
Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…
That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.
@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic
Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!
Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.
View this post on Instagram
“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”
Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.
That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.
As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.
I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.
One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.
The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.
If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.
Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.
As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.
It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.
David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.
In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:
“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”
Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”
Eventually, though, something shifts.
We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.
Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.
Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.
Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.
So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.
I see someone evolving.
He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.
It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.
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Golfraven
Dec 17, 2014 at 3:11 pm
Sorry but saying Jordan will not be a true champion because of his lenght is pure nonsense. What makes him a champion already is his dedication, integrity and respect for his team, other players and the game. He certainly figered it out at an age earlier to Rory. Yeah he is sometimes bold in his interviews but this is just hishonesty and confidence – nothing wrong about that, he knows what he wants. Want to see more players of his class. Go on Jordan, don’t be a Tiger!
Golfraven
Dec 17, 2014 at 2:57 pm
OK this may be controversial but I say it, Jordan will win his first green jacket before Rory. Its his time. Like both players and both would be in my dream foursome flight. Both will be leading next ‘Big Three’ generation of players – I cannot decide on the 3rd player at this time (maybe Ricky). Looking forward to see Rors and Jordan competing. Just hope Jordan will not join Nike – that would kill it for me.
Ponjo
Dec 25, 2014 at 3:05 am
HaHa. So playing NIke clubs would ruin it for you how exactly.
Tom Earls
Dec 17, 2014 at 12:01 pm
I would like a little less speculation on who is the next world #1. I like golf. I don’t need to know who is number 1 by some pointg system. They’re all good, and entertaining. The mistake you al make covering golf is focusing on 2 or 3 golfers who are at the top. The following week 6 other guys lead the tournament on Friday and Saturday and the fans have never heard of them, and the announceres are left wondering who is this guy and why isn’t Tiger playing the weekend. Cover them all. At leaset the top 30 or so so when the weekend comes we have at least heard of the leaders.
Thanks.
Tom
Jonny B
Dec 17, 2014 at 10:14 am
Great picture for this article. I think we really could be on the brink of a special rivalry (or chivalry) with these two young guys. Both are incredibly talented. The picture reminds me of Palmer (Spieth) and Player (McIlroy). One of the great rivalries in the history of the game.
j.a.
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:40 am
Jordan Spieth is in a different category than Rory. He plays the precision game. He might go a par 4 with driver an a 9 iron instead driver and a wedge but for sure, that 7 iron will send the ball to where he can secure birdies. Mathematics are simple, a 400m par 4 equals 300m + 100m or 250m + 150m. Moreover, his putting is outstanding.
He might had a beer or two legally while in Australia and something else to celebrate the Aussie Open victory. He’s more than welcome Down Under and I look forward to see him in person again. He will have a great 2015 and beyond.
dapadre
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:34 am
Only time will tell, but the kid has MASSIVE game. If you compare him at his age vs Rors, he was CERTAINLY BETTER. One thing i love about him is he really wants it. He has that Tiger ferociousness which Rors doesnt have. Not saying its bad but I get the felling for Rors everything doesnt revolve around golf but for Spieth it seems to. For those saying he wont win because of length, agree length is very important but we have seen many past players that werent that long that did very well.
Mark
Dec 16, 2014 at 2:37 am
I a word “No”. Spieth is a fine player but is not in the same league as Rory. Not long enough to dominate the modern game.
jgpl001
Dec 16, 2014 at 5:35 pm
Totally agree
He is a fine player, a great putter, and will win loads of tournaments, but Rory is in a totally different league, totally different
marcel
Dec 16, 2014 at 12:34 am
he can sign up with Horizon and then break contract and sue them. otherwise boy has no chance to replicate Rory
j
Dec 15, 2014 at 9:36 pm
“backdoor” top 10. seriously, just because you play well the last day you want to call it a backdoor top 10. you play four days and if you get a top 10 it doesn’t matter how you do it. last time i checked a 65 still counts as 65 on Sunday just as much as it does on any other day. Playing hard on Sunday even when you don’t have a chance to win is a sign of a true competitor, especially for the truly elite players like Tiger, Phil, Rory, etc who judge their years based on victories. It would be much easier to just mail it in and get it to the house and get outta Dodge but Rory plays hard on Sunday. Calling it a backdoor top 10 makes it sound less impressive than it actually is. I guess next time someone takes a 2 shot lead into the final round and shoots 74 to tie for 8th you can call him and congratulate him on his “frontdoor” top 10. Either way you still have to beat the whole field except for around 10 or less people which is great golf.
Mike
Dec 15, 2014 at 8:30 pm
No
Rich
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:29 am
+1
Scotty
Dec 15, 2014 at 11:24 am
Wow I can’t believe I keep hearing ” he hits it too short ”
He just wont by 10 shots on islesworth which is extremely long and difficult
Jordan hits itg plenty long and only 21 plus he can bulk up just like rory in 6 months if he wanted to
He is not “as good” as rory mcilroy but can hold is own and will win 5+ majors for sure
Just my two cents
Pat
Dec 15, 2014 at 1:39 pm
That’s because he’s average off the tee distance wise. Not very accurate either. Kid has a good short game though to make up for his short comings. He doesn’t have nearly the talent and length that McIlroy does and when it’s all said and done, he won’t have nearly as many wins period.
Jadon
Dec 15, 2014 at 11:21 am
Spieth is a monster. We love our Texas boy.
Jake Anderson
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:39 am
no we don’t.
bradford
Dec 15, 2014 at 11:11 am
While I’d love to be proven wrong, it’s unlikely Rory’s 2015 will match his own 2014.
Jake Anderson
Dec 15, 2014 at 10:52 am
Very correctly analyzed. Spieth hits it too short to be a true champion.
Jimmeh
Dec 15, 2014 at 12:46 pm
Luke Donald 2011 might want a say here…
AndyB
Dec 15, 2014 at 7:32 pm
Luke Donald has never won a major, and I have major money saying he never will. Length will keep Spieth from dominating in the majors and winning more than 2-3 in his career. He will be a good player with great moments for years to come, but he will not be on Rory’s level.