Opinion & Analysis
Can Spieth follow in Rory’s footsteps?
It’s that time of year again—a strange period where Tiger Woods’ unofficial 18-man event carries nearly as much clout in the World Golf Rankings as his own actual PGA Tour tournament in July.
So thank goodness Jordan Spieth decided to set the world ablaze.
The 21-year-old, the butt of thousands of drinking age jokes (seriously it got really annoying), stormed his way to victory at the Australian Open, posting a final-round 63 in breezy conditions to finish six shots ahead. And then of course there was the encore at Woods’ close get-together, where Spieth smoked the host by 26 shots, and everybody else by at least 10.
The American wunderkind has the golf world buzzing. Already considered a future flag bearer for the United States, Spieth and his recent results have left the golf establishment yearning for 2015 to see what this Texas boy wonder can do next.
And with some believing majors will be in his near future, an important question has started to pop up: Will Spieth’s upcoming season roughly match Rory McIlroy’s sensational 2014?
On the outset, it’s not an unjustified inquiry based on these recent events. The round of the year could very well be that 63. And Spieth’s total victory margin of 16 in consecutive weeks is a feat Woods himself has only reached twice.
But the question is presumptuous. It assumes that Spieth holds a real possibility of matching McIlroy’s recent exploits, when the truth is that the chances are exceedingly unlikely.
That’s right, the precious young American is, in essence, a long shot to follow in McIlroy’s 2014 footsteps. And there’s an ample view to see why.
For one, the increased hype hasn’t been entirely organic. Sure, the actual dominance of these two performances of course factored heavily into the rising expectations, but there’s no doubt the similarities between McIlroy’s end to 2013 and Spieth’s recent surge–namely their winning the Australian Open following disappointing seasons in the public eye–also aided in this production. Spieth was asked about this similarity in his post-tournament press conference in Australia, and some writers have brought it up since. And it serves no purpose but to add phony fuel to the Spieth expectation machine for 2015. It’s a downright lazy way to foster support for Spieth 2015, as any matching facts between McIlroy’s and Spieth’s Aussie victories are pure coincidences, not portenders of the latter’s future performance.
As for those dominating performances, let’s be realistic about the true nature of these tournaments. The Australian Open contains big names at the top, but little overall depth. And Woods’ event, while boasting a strong field, is a relaxed atmosphere with its unofficial status, contains less than 20 competitors and is in a spot in December when golfer motivation is alarmingly low. These were still impressive performances with extraordinary winning margins, but when you shine the light closer these weren’t exactly world-class events Spieth stormed through.
All of this brings more of a realistic shade to those 2015 ambitions, but to truly comprehend Spieth’s long odds, we have to understand just how special McIlroy’s 2014 campaign turned out. No, it’s not an all-time great season—Tiger has at least a few himself that he could say were better—but the numbers are staggering. In 24 total events, four wins, including two majors and the European Tour’s flagship event, 17 top-10s—a few admittedly backdoor—and one lone finish outside of the top-25. The wins, and the magnitude of the triumphs, are what catch the headlines, (and deservedly so), but the lack of truly disastrous results adds worth to the season’s value.
As Alex Myers noted, McIlroy went a whole year in golf and had one truly bad week. That’s incredible.
McIlroy posted this set of performances at 25, while Spieth must strive for those marks as he enters his age-21 season—a near impossible proposition.
Over the past 40 years, no single 21-year-old has put together a season that is an undisputed equal of what McIlroy pieced out in 2014. Woods and Seve Ballesteros are the only two who can claim age-21 seasons that “roughly match” Rory’s 2014—Woods with his four wins and one major in 1997 and Ballesteros with a five-win campaign in 1978. Otherwise nothing comes close to the McIlroy 2014 standard we are looking to reach here.
The next best seasons in this time span belong to Sergio Garcia (three wins, 11 top-10s in 2001), Adam Scott (two wins, nine top-10s in 2002) and Robert Gamez (two wins in 1990). While excellent campaigns from this trio, these don’t quite fit the criteria.
The picking here is slim then, with those age-21 players accomplishing roughly matching seasons to McIlroy 2014 once every 20 years. And the players on the outer section of the orbit are just as pared down.
If anybody could crack into this 21 group, namely the Woods-Ballesteros section, Spieth, based on his talent, is near the top of the list. But he would have to accomplish something that is done basically once every generation, a daunting task even for a player of Spieth’s ability.
And there’s a common theme among this quintet of 21-year-old achievers: They were all long drivers at the time of the season in question—with Woods and Ballesteros at the very top in this category.
That is probably not a coincidence.
Experience is a tough factor to measure in a golfer’s performance, but at age 21 every player lacks it to a large degree, and that deficiency likely hampers any young gun on the course. The long ball is the main way to overcome this disadvantage youth presents—course knowledge and strategy are overrated when you can hit your approach from 30 yards closer—and if you can’t pipe it deep, the trail to early domination becomes a lot more perilous.
Spieth is not a long-hitter by Tour standards, and is of course nowhere near Ballesteros-Woods. The 21-year-old is decidedly average in distance, finishing 89th in the category among 177 qualifying PGA Tour players in 2014 and 80th in a set of 180 the previous season.
All of this presents him another significant obstacle in soaring to Rory-like heights in 2014. Not only must the Texan pull off a once-in-a-generation feat, he has to do so while lacking a main attribute of all the previous men who accomplished something special at age 21.
Matters aren’t looking too good then in trying to reach the McIlroy standard.
Spieth no doubt has a bright future in this game, and at the very least his floor in 2015, and going forward, will be quite high. His game is as all-around as it gets, a circumstance that should shield him from any truly abysmal seasons.
The McIlroy-like visions may not be met, but Spieth’s 2015 won’t be an absolute bust.
With the 21-year-old, the expectations should be high, but fans and media tend to get carried away with this American darling.
Following a rookie year in which he became the youngest winner on the PGA Tour since the 1930s, Spieth was considered a closer. A year later, losing efforts at the Masters and Players Championship were enough to convince observers to flip-flop and call Spieth “the great player who couldn’t close.”
It’s fair to anticipate another victory or two from Spieth in 2015; a major might easily be there for the taking as well. But there’s no need to panic if he doesn’t win, and it’s especially useless to fret if his season doesn’t come close to resembling the success of McIlroy’s 2014.
Spieth is for sure the leader of the American revolution in the professional level, just don’t expect it to be a short battle.
Aronimink is not a storied club, but when Donald Ross himself proclaimed it to be as good as he can design and build, one had to take notice. Jay Sigel was the pre-eminent male amateur golfer from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s. He might have called any number of Philadelphia clubs home, but he chose Aronimink. It served him well. Gary Player won a PGA Championship here in 1962, and was followed by the 1993 winner … nobody. Aronimink gave that event away to Inverness, for reasons of which it is certainly not proud. So be it. We had to wait sixty-four years for the PGA to return to Newtown Square, but here we are. Aronimink has been neo-restored by Gil Hanse and team, to return Ross features with an eye toward defense against the dark arts, errrr, high-tech equipment.
Day one saw Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau dig big holes, to the tune of plus-four and plus-six, respectively. Since the first-round lead will be minus-three at worst, many shots will need to be made up for the power couple to reach contention. By nightfall, seven golfers held the day-one lead at three-under par 67. Shots and sticks caught our attention, and we are proud to present Five Things We Learned on Tech Thursday at the 2026 PGA Championship. Thanks to InsideTourGolfer, Today’s Golfer, and GolfWRX for initial equipment research.
First, meet Min Woo Lee
Min Woo Lee, aka Dr. Chipinski, has once again thrust himself into the conversation of Can he, will he, when will he? Lee has so much talent, wins not nearly as often as we believe that he should, and has no major near-misses (much less titles) on his wiki. The young Aussie is getting older and wiser, but is he able to avoid the scarring that holds the older and wiser back from breaking through? Philadelphia offers another opportunity. Min Woo signed for five birdies and two bogeys on day one, and grabbed a share of the opening-day lead at Aronimink. Winners transcend history and the moment, and Lee will need that sort of ascent to lift the Wannamaker on Sunday.
Second, meet Aldrich Potgeiter
The young South African golfer can rip driver with the best of them. Aronimink tips out at nearly 7400 yards, but beyond the fairway bunkers that ensnare only the mortals, Potgeiter can take his chances with wedge from the rough. On Thursday, he spent plenty of time in the spinach. Like Popeye, he used his muscles to gouge and thrash and dig his way out. Six birdies against three bogeys on the card brought AP in a three deep.
Third, meet Martin Kaymer
Not a major event takes place without a where’s he been throwback moment. We know that Martin Kaymer left the PGA and DP World tours for LIV golf, but the two-time (US Open and PGA) major winner has a lifetime exemption into at least one major event, and he seizes the opportunity each May. Kaymer joined the six-seven brigade with four birdies and a solitary bogey on day one. Kaymer was never a long hitter, and the years are kind to no golfer. The German champion will need to uncork every bottle of guile and strategy in his cabinet to remain in contention. For today, though, he occupies a rung on the ladder of Tour Tech.
Fourth, meet Scottie Scheffler
Let’s see, he’s the defending champion at the PGA, and he found his way back to the top tier with five birdies against two bogeys. To be a favorite and then play up to that stature and expectation is quite difficult. Just ask Rory, Bryson, and some of the other pre-tournament heartthrobs. Scheffler’s game is complete, and to knock him off the OWGR #1 pedestal, one needs to defeat him at the majors. Aronimink is the sort of course that fits Scheffler’s game. Better yet, it unfits the game of many of his challengers. Don’t expect Scheffler to go away anytime soon. Come Sunday, he’ll be around.
Fifth, meet Stephan Jaeger
Clocking in for the unheralded players shift are Ryo Hisatsune and Stephan Jaeger. Hisatsune logged seven birdies on day one, but gave most of them back with four bogeys. Still, he’s tied at the top for a time. Jaeger pitched five birdies against two bogeys, including a run of three consecutive, from holes four through six. Odds are that one of the two will hang around through 36 holes. Odds also suggest that both will be gone by Saturday evening. Still, the PGA Championship has historically been the major most likely to be won by an under-known. Both Hisatsune and Jaeger feature on that list, so good luck, lads!
On this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, I head to the Titleist Performance Institute for a full driver fitting with the new Titleist GTS lineup. We dive into the fitting process, talk about what made the biggest difference in performance, and break down how the different GTS heads and shaft combinations compare on the launch monitor. If you are thinking about a new driver setup for this season, there is a lot to take away from this one.
I also get into Brooks Koepka and the gear setup he brought to the PGA Championship, including the putters that caught my eye during the week. There are some interesting equipment trends showing up at the highest level right now and we break down what stands out.
To wrap things up, I talk about reshafting a few wedges, what I learned during the process, and swapping an adaptor onto a new shaft for another build project in the shop. A gear packed episode from start to finish for anyone who loves golf equipment and club building.
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Excited for this week’s WITB as we get to add the new Titleist GTS woods to the bag! I was fit at Titleist’s TPI facility in Oceanside California a few weeks ago and my new clubs just showed up. I am also adding a cool set of irons that I built last year some wild custom wedges into a new golf bag. Speaking of the bag I have a new Ghost Anyday Black Ops stand bag that I will be using on my Motocaddy Remote M7 electric cart.
Driver: Titleist GTS3 (11 degrees @ 10.25)
Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Red 6s
3-wood: Titleist GT1 3Tour (14.5 degrees)
Shaft: Graphite Design Tour AD CQ-7s
5-wood: Titleist GTS (18 degrees)
Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Red 7s
9-wood: Titleist GT1 (24 degress)
Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Red 7s
Irons: Bettinardi CB24 (5-PW)
Shafts: KBS C-Taper Lite 110 stiff
Wedge: TaylorMade MG5 (50-09 SB)
Shaft: Mitsubishi MMT 125 Stiff
Wedge: TaylorMade MG5 (56-12 SB)
Shaft: Mitsubishi MMT 125 Stiff
Wedge: TaylorMade MG5 (60-08 LB)
Shaft: Mitsubishi MMT 125 Stiff
Putter: Dan Carraher ZT Proto
Ball: Callaway Chrome Tour
Bag: Ghost Anyday Black Ops Stand Bag
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Driver: Titleist GT3 (9 degrees) Buy here. Shaft: Aldila Rogue Silver 130 M.S.I. 70 TX 3-wood: TaylorMade Qi35 (15 degrees)...
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Driver: TaylorMade M6 (9 degrees) Shaft: Aldilda Synergy Blue 70 TX 3-wood: TaylorMade Qi10 (15 degrees) Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Blue...
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Driver: TaylorMade Qi4D (9 degrees) Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Black VeloCore+ 5 X 3-wood: TaylorMade Qi4D (15 degrees @14.25) Shaft: Mitsubishi...
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Driver: Krank Formula Fire Pro (6 degrees) Shaft: Project X Prototype 3-wood: Krank Formula Fire (10 degrees) Shaft: LA Golf BAD...
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Golfraven
Dec 17, 2014 at 3:11 pm
Sorry but saying Jordan will not be a true champion because of his lenght is pure nonsense. What makes him a champion already is his dedication, integrity and respect for his team, other players and the game. He certainly figered it out at an age earlier to Rory. Yeah he is sometimes bold in his interviews but this is just hishonesty and confidence – nothing wrong about that, he knows what he wants. Want to see more players of his class. Go on Jordan, don’t be a Tiger!
Golfraven
Dec 17, 2014 at 2:57 pm
OK this may be controversial but I say it, Jordan will win his first green jacket before Rory. Its his time. Like both players and both would be in my dream foursome flight. Both will be leading next ‘Big Three’ generation of players – I cannot decide on the 3rd player at this time (maybe Ricky). Looking forward to see Rors and Jordan competing. Just hope Jordan will not join Nike – that would kill it for me.
Ponjo
Dec 25, 2014 at 3:05 am
HaHa. So playing NIke clubs would ruin it for you how exactly.
Tom Earls
Dec 17, 2014 at 12:01 pm
I would like a little less speculation on who is the next world #1. I like golf. I don’t need to know who is number 1 by some pointg system. They’re all good, and entertaining. The mistake you al make covering golf is focusing on 2 or 3 golfers who are at the top. The following week 6 other guys lead the tournament on Friday and Saturday and the fans have never heard of them, and the announceres are left wondering who is this guy and why isn’t Tiger playing the weekend. Cover them all. At leaset the top 30 or so so when the weekend comes we have at least heard of the leaders.
Thanks.
Tom
Jonny B
Dec 17, 2014 at 10:14 am
Great picture for this article. I think we really could be on the brink of a special rivalry (or chivalry) with these two young guys. Both are incredibly talented. The picture reminds me of Palmer (Spieth) and Player (McIlroy). One of the great rivalries in the history of the game.
j.a.
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:40 am
Jordan Spieth is in a different category than Rory. He plays the precision game. He might go a par 4 with driver an a 9 iron instead driver and a wedge but for sure, that 7 iron will send the ball to where he can secure birdies. Mathematics are simple, a 400m par 4 equals 300m + 100m or 250m + 150m. Moreover, his putting is outstanding.
He might had a beer or two legally while in Australia and something else to celebrate the Aussie Open victory. He’s more than welcome Down Under and I look forward to see him in person again. He will have a great 2015 and beyond.
dapadre
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:34 am
Only time will tell, but the kid has MASSIVE game. If you compare him at his age vs Rors, he was CERTAINLY BETTER. One thing i love about him is he really wants it. He has that Tiger ferociousness which Rors doesnt have. Not saying its bad but I get the felling for Rors everything doesnt revolve around golf but for Spieth it seems to. For those saying he wont win because of length, agree length is very important but we have seen many past players that werent that long that did very well.
Mark
Dec 16, 2014 at 2:37 am
I a word “No”. Spieth is a fine player but is not in the same league as Rory. Not long enough to dominate the modern game.
jgpl001
Dec 16, 2014 at 5:35 pm
Totally agree
He is a fine player, a great putter, and will win loads of tournaments, but Rory is in a totally different league, totally different
marcel
Dec 16, 2014 at 12:34 am
he can sign up with Horizon and then break contract and sue them. otherwise boy has no chance to replicate Rory
j
Dec 15, 2014 at 9:36 pm
“backdoor” top 10. seriously, just because you play well the last day you want to call it a backdoor top 10. you play four days and if you get a top 10 it doesn’t matter how you do it. last time i checked a 65 still counts as 65 on Sunday just as much as it does on any other day. Playing hard on Sunday even when you don’t have a chance to win is a sign of a true competitor, especially for the truly elite players like Tiger, Phil, Rory, etc who judge their years based on victories. It would be much easier to just mail it in and get it to the house and get outta Dodge but Rory plays hard on Sunday. Calling it a backdoor top 10 makes it sound less impressive than it actually is. I guess next time someone takes a 2 shot lead into the final round and shoots 74 to tie for 8th you can call him and congratulate him on his “frontdoor” top 10. Either way you still have to beat the whole field except for around 10 or less people which is great golf.
Mike
Dec 15, 2014 at 8:30 pm
No
Rich
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:29 am
+1
Scotty
Dec 15, 2014 at 11:24 am
Wow I can’t believe I keep hearing ” he hits it too short ”
He just wont by 10 shots on islesworth which is extremely long and difficult
Jordan hits itg plenty long and only 21 plus he can bulk up just like rory in 6 months if he wanted to
He is not “as good” as rory mcilroy but can hold is own and will win 5+ majors for sure
Just my two cents
Pat
Dec 15, 2014 at 1:39 pm
That’s because he’s average off the tee distance wise. Not very accurate either. Kid has a good short game though to make up for his short comings. He doesn’t have nearly the talent and length that McIlroy does and when it’s all said and done, he won’t have nearly as many wins period.
Jadon
Dec 15, 2014 at 11:21 am
Spieth is a monster. We love our Texas boy.
Jake Anderson
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:39 am
no we don’t.
bradford
Dec 15, 2014 at 11:11 am
While I’d love to be proven wrong, it’s unlikely Rory’s 2015 will match his own 2014.
Jake Anderson
Dec 15, 2014 at 10:52 am
Very correctly analyzed. Spieth hits it too short to be a true champion.
Jimmeh
Dec 15, 2014 at 12:46 pm
Luke Donald 2011 might want a say here…
AndyB
Dec 15, 2014 at 7:32 pm
Luke Donald has never won a major, and I have major money saying he never will. Length will keep Spieth from dominating in the majors and winning more than 2-3 in his career. He will be a good player with great moments for years to come, but he will not be on Rory’s level.