Opinion & Analysis
Why some of the most popular Tour players are disappointing this year
The U.S. Open is golf’s second major championship, making it the unofficial halfway point of the PGA Tour season. Before we hit the second stretch of the year, I wanted to take a look at the metrics of some of the PGA Tour’s most popular players who have not quite played up to their potential in 2015.
Maybe one of these players will find their game this week and win their first U.S. Open (or in Graeme McDowell’s case, his second U.S. Open). And looking at the numbers, some players seem closer to playing their best than other.
These rankings are based on the 202 players who have qualified statistically for my study, and my explanations are based on my knowledge and experience working as a PGA Tour statistician.
Graham DeLaet
DeLaet is considered by some analysts to be the best player on the PGA Tour without a victory. In the previous two seasons, he proved to be one of the best ball strikers on the planet, but this year his ball striking has regressed with the most noticeable drop-off in his driving. He has a couple of issues. For starters, his club speed is down quite a bit. It was 120.96 mph in 2013 and only 117.91 mph this season. The other is that DeLaet is laying up off the tee more often, so he is effectively losing distance as he only ranks 87th in Driving Distance on all drives.
DeLaet is still fairly accurate off the tee, as he is hitting 63 percent of his fairways and he is 159th in Average Distance to the Edge of the Fairway. That’s not too terrible at his club head speed. His miss bias is only 50.7 percent to the left, so I’m not sure why DeLaet has started to utilize a more conservative strategy, as it is clearly to his detriment. He still has capable enough ball striking to limit his bogeys, but his slower club speed and more conservative nature is making it more difficult for him to hit shots close to the hole and give himself a good chance at making birdie.
DeLaet is not playing in the U.S. Open this week due to injury, and the 33-year-old’s physical issues could be a leading contributor to his woes.
Luke Donald
Luke Donald’s main issue over the years has been his driving. His strengths were just about everything else, particularly the putter and approach shots from 75-175 yards. Since that fantastic 2012 season, he has tried to make changes to improve his driving, but he has lost his superior iron play, deft touch around the greens and deadly putter.
Donald still shows some glimpses of elite performance from the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards), but his Red Zone play (175-225 yards) has completely fallen apart and his driving is some of the least effective on the entire Tour. He’s able to avoid bogeys because he still has a great short game, but a lack of distance, inferior iron play and below average putting makes birdies difficult to come by.
Donald ranks 190th and 191st in putts from 5-10 feet and 10-15 feet, respectively. This is an indicator that he may have problems with the putter that will take longer to solve.
Jason Dufner
Dufner is playing better than his earnings indicate, as he’s 46th in Adjusted Scoring Average. His game usually revolves around excellent driving and short game play. Dufner is sometimes very good with the irons and at other times he is about average with the irons. Putting is usually the weakest part of his game.
This year, Dufner’s iron play is better than it has been in the past couple of seasons, but his driving is not quite near the elite level it usually is. The same goes for his short game play. However, if his top driving form returns to form and he can make some putts, I could see him having a strong stretch of performance down the road.
Hunter Mahan
Most of Mahan’s 2014-15 earnings have come from last fall. Since then has only missed one cut, but outside of a T9 finish he has not played well in 2015.
Mahan’s strength has been his driving, and he has an underrated short game and putter. His weakness over the years has been his iron play, and he is still struggling to figure it out. When you drive it well like Mahan does and have a sound short game and putt well, it’s going to be difficult to miss cuts.
This is the similar to the way he has played in the past, and he seems to eventually have four good days with his irons game and win a tournament. It’s going to be tough for him to move to the next level with such poor Red Zone performance, but his performance this year is akin to similar to previous seasons.
So why is a he on this “disappointing” list? There’s a feeling in the professional golf world that Mahan has the skills to win more frequently, and he’s continued to fall short of those expectations.
Graeme McDowell
McDowell has made changes to his swing in order to hit the ball higher. Typically, Tour players are better off hitting the ball high than low, all other things being equal. So I can understand his desire to make changes.
McDowell’s launch angle has now improved to 11.02 degrees with the driver and his Max Height is nearly 96 feet, which is closer to the Tour average. But the swing changes have so far made him far less effective off the tee. Previously, McDowell was a perennial top-20 driver of the ball.
The swing changes also appear to have caused some growing pains with his irons. He is usually very good from the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards), but this year he’s ranked 169th. And he’s typically an elite player from the Red Zone (175-225 yards), but this year he’s only above average at 69th.
McDowell has always struggled with his short game play, and this year is no different. What is different is his Driving Effectiveness and Yellow Zone play. Combine those with a weak Short Game and it’s a recipe for making bogeys.
Phil Mickelson
Mickelson has not played poorly by PGA Tour player standards, as he is 29th in Earnings and 31st in Adjusted Scoring Average. But the 45-year-old has higher standards for his play, and since he has yet to win this season he is worth noting.
Unlike previous seasons, Phil’s driving is not doing him in. In fact, he’s more effective off the tee than the average Tour player. The difference for Phil is that his iron play, which is usually a strength, has been off a bit. The good news is that he is still good from where it counts most, the Red Zone (175-225 yards).
His short game play has been below average as well — but Phil’s Short Game is not always on point. I think he tries to hit the heroic shot too often and sometimes that costs him. If he can improve his iron play, however, then he should not have to worry about attempting the heroic up-and-down shot to begin with.
Since iron play has usually been a strength of Lefty’s, I can see him having a strong stretch of play at the end of the season.
Carl Pettersson
Pettersson is playing better than his Earnings indicate (99th in Adjusted Scoring Average). Pettersson’s game usually revolved around pretty good driving and very good putting, but he appears to have made some swing changes and that has taken a toll on his driving a little. His putting has also dipped, and he has to prepare for life without the long putter for next season.
Charl Schwartzel
Schwartzel’s iron play has hurt him in recent seasons. He only ranked 132nd on iron shots from the fairway last season, and this season his iron play has become considerably worse. Schwartzel usually has a sound short game, but has struggled around the green and has not been able to hole putts.
Adam Scott
Scott has not played in many events, so his performance is actually better than his earnings. But he is still a long ways from performing in the upper echelon on Tour. Scott is still a good-to-great ballstriker, but he has had some issues hitting approach shots from the rough. He has also been hitting the ball lower off the tee than in years past as he has adjusted to a new driver head and shaft that he switched to for more distance.
But the main issue for Scott has been his putting. Trying to transition to a traditional putter has not worked well thus far.
Bo Van Pelt
Van Pelt’s strength used to be his driver. He was a solid iron player and a bit suspect on and around the greens. He was known for hitting quite a bit up on the driver and being able to do it effectively. Now he appears to hit less upward on the driver as we can see by his ranking in Carry Efficiency.
This season he ranks 71st in Carry Efficiency (Carry Distance/Club Speed = Carry Efficiency) compared to ranking 14th in Carry Efficiency in 2012. His launch angle has only changed by 0.21 degrees since 2012, but his Spin Rate is now roughly 350 rpm lower this season. Furthermore, his hang time is less by 0.2 seconds, which is substantial for hang time.
Van Pelt is a little shorter off the tee due to the drop in club speed, but he’s missing more fairways and all things considered I think his change to a lower-spinning driver is actually working against him.
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
Club Junkie
A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
Opinion & Analysis
From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
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mark
Jun 18, 2015 at 11:39 pm
pretty sure it all comes down to the old ball and chain!!
scott just had a baby, dufner got a divorce.
mcdowell, mickelson and mahan all punching above their weight
and the rest probably cant get any!
Christosterone
Jun 18, 2015 at 4:16 pm
Why does the golf channel not constantly question every swing they make?
Tiger gets absolutely lambasted every time he misses a fairway…
Curious how Chamblee and his like are so naive to the difficulty of the PGA tour.
It is a razors edge to make a cut, let alone win an event…or, say 5 events in 2013….
brian d
Jun 18, 2015 at 12:47 pm
carl petterson is not popular…
random guy
Jun 18, 2015 at 11:31 am
crazy how fickle golf is. improve 2 things in your game and three components get worse. refreshing to know it’s a struggle to put it all together even for top professionals….sigh