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Opinion & Analysis

Why some of the most popular Tour players are disappointing this year

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The U.S. Open is golf’s second major championship, making it the unofficial halfway point of the PGA Tour season. Before we hit the second stretch of the year, I wanted to take a look at the metrics of some of the PGA Tour’s most popular players who have not quite played up to their potential in 2015.

Maybe one of these players will find their game this week and win their first U.S. Open (or in Graeme McDowell’s case, his second U.S. Open). And looking at the numbers, some players seem closer to playing their best than other.

These rankings are based on the 202 players who have qualified statistically for my study, and my explanations are based on my knowledge and experience working as a PGA Tour statistician.

Graham DeLaet

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DeLaet is considered by some analysts to be the best player on the PGA Tour without a victory. In the previous two seasons, he proved to be one of the best ball strikers on the planet, but this year his ball striking has regressed with the most noticeable drop-off in his driving. He has a couple of issues. For starters, his club speed is down quite a bit. It was 120.96 mph in 2013 and only 117.91 mph this season. The other is that DeLaet is laying up off the tee more often, so he is effectively losing distance as he only ranks 87th in Driving Distance on all drives.

DeLaet is still fairly accurate off the tee, as he is hitting 63 percent of his fairways and he is 159th in Average Distance to the Edge of the Fairway. That’s not too terrible at his club head speed. His miss bias is only 50.7 percent to the left, so I’m not sure why DeLaet has started to utilize a more conservative strategy, as it is clearly to his detriment. He still has capable enough ball striking to limit his bogeys, but his slower club speed and more conservative nature is making it more difficult for him to hit shots close to the hole and give himself a good chance at making birdie.

DeLaet is not playing in the U.S. Open this week due to injury, and the 33-year-old’s physical issues could be a leading contributor to his woes.

Luke Donald

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Luke Donald’s main issue over the years has been his driving. His strengths were just about everything else, particularly the putter and approach shots from 75-175 yards. Since that fantastic 2012 season, he has tried to make changes to improve his driving, but he has lost his superior iron play, deft touch around the greens and deadly putter.

Donald still shows some glimpses of elite performance from the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards), but his Red Zone play (175-225 yards) has completely fallen apart and his driving is some of the least effective on the entire Tour. He’s able to avoid bogeys because he still has a great short game, but a lack of distance, inferior iron play and below average putting makes birdies difficult to come by.

Donald ranks 190th and 191st in putts from 5-10 feet and 10-15 feet, respectively. This is an indicator that he may have problems with the putter that will take longer to solve.

Jason Dufner

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Dufner is playing better than his earnings indicate, as he’s 46th in Adjusted Scoring Average. His game usually revolves around excellent driving and short game play. Dufner is sometimes very good with the irons and at other times he is about average with the irons. Putting is usually the weakest part of his game.

This year, Dufner’s iron play is better than it has been in the past couple of seasons, but his driving is not quite near the elite level it usually is. The same goes for his short game play. However, if his top driving form returns to form and he can make some putts, I could see him having a strong stretch of performance down the road.

Hunter Mahan

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Most of Mahan’s 2014-15 earnings have come from last fall. Since then has only missed one cut, but outside of a T9 finish he has not played well in 2015.

Mahan’s strength has been his driving, and he has an underrated short game and putter. His weakness over the years has been his iron play, and he is still struggling to figure it out. When you drive it well like Mahan does and have a sound short game and putt well, it’s going to be difficult to miss cuts.

This is the similar to the way he has played in the past, and he seems to eventually have four good days with his irons game and win a tournament. It’s going to be tough for him to move to the next level with such poor Red Zone performance, but his performance this year is akin to similar to previous seasons.

So why is a he on this “disappointing” list? There’s a feeling in the professional golf world that Mahan has the skills to win more frequently, and he’s continued to fall short of those expectations.

Graeme McDowell

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McDowell has made changes to his swing in order to hit the ball higher. Typically, Tour players are better off hitting the ball high than low, all other things being equal. So I can understand his desire to make changes.

McDowell’s launch angle has now improved to 11.02 degrees with the driver and his Max Height is nearly 96 feet, which is closer to the Tour average. But the swing changes have so far made him far less effective off the tee. Previously, McDowell was a perennial top-20 driver of the ball.

The swing changes also appear to have caused some growing pains with his irons. He is usually very good from the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards), but this year he’s ranked 169th. And he’s typically an elite player from the Red Zone (175-225 yards), but this year he’s only above average at 69th.

McDowell has always struggled with his short game play, and this year is no different. What is different is his Driving Effectiveness and Yellow Zone play. Combine those with a weak Short Game and it’s a recipe for making bogeys.

Phil Mickelson

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Mickelson has not played poorly by PGA Tour player standards, as he is 29th in Earnings and 31st in Adjusted Scoring Average. But the 45-year-old has higher standards for his play, and since he has yet to win this season he is worth noting.

Unlike previous seasons, Phil’s driving is not doing him in. In fact, he’s more effective off the tee than the average Tour player. The difference for Phil is that his iron play, which is usually a strength, has been off a bit. The good news is that he is still good from where it counts most, the Red Zone (175-225 yards).

His short game play has been below average as well — but Phil’s Short Game is not always on point. I think he tries to hit the heroic shot too often and sometimes that costs him. If he can improve his iron play, however, then he should not have to worry about attempting the heroic up-and-down shot to begin with.

Since iron play has usually been a strength of Lefty’s, I can see him having a strong stretch of play at the end of the season.

Carl Pettersson

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Pettersson is playing better than his Earnings indicate (99th in Adjusted Scoring Average). Pettersson’s game usually revolved around pretty good driving and very good putting, but he appears to have made some swing changes and that has taken a toll on his driving a little. His putting has also dipped, and he has to prepare for life without the long putter for next season.

Charl Schwartzel

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Schwartzel’s iron play has hurt him in recent seasons. He only ranked 132nd on iron shots from the fairway last season, and this season his iron play has become considerably worse. Schwartzel usually has a sound short game, but has struggled around the green and has not been able to hole putts.

Adam Scott

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Scott has not played in many events, so his performance is actually better than his earnings. But he is still a long ways from performing in the upper echelon on Tour. Scott is still a good-to-great ballstriker, but he has had some issues hitting approach shots from the rough. He has also been hitting the ball lower off the tee than in years past as he has adjusted to a new driver head and shaft that he switched to for more distance.

But the main issue for Scott has been his putting. Trying to transition to a traditional putter has not worked well thus far.

Bo Van Pelt

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Van Pelt’s strength used to be his driver. He was a solid iron player and a bit suspect on and around the greens. He was known for hitting quite a bit up on the driver and being able to do it effectively. Now he appears to hit less upward on the driver as we can see by his ranking in Carry Efficiency.

This season he ranks 71st in Carry Efficiency (Carry Distance/Club Speed = Carry Efficiency) compared to ranking 14th in Carry Efficiency in 2012. His launch angle has only changed by 0.21 degrees since 2012, but his Spin Rate is now roughly 350 rpm lower this season. Furthermore, his hang time is less by 0.2 seconds, which is substantial for hang time.

Van Pelt is a little shorter off the tee due to the drop in club speed, but he’s missing more fairways and all things considered I think his change to a lower-spinning driver is actually working against him.

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. mark

    Jun 18, 2015 at 11:39 pm

    pretty sure it all comes down to the old ball and chain!!
    scott just had a baby, dufner got a divorce.
    mcdowell, mickelson and mahan all punching above their weight
    and the rest probably cant get any!

  2. Christosterone

    Jun 18, 2015 at 4:16 pm

    Why does the golf channel not constantly question every swing they make?
    Tiger gets absolutely lambasted every time he misses a fairway…
    Curious how Chamblee and his like are so naive to the difficulty of the PGA tour.
    It is a razors edge to make a cut, let alone win an event…or, say 5 events in 2013….

  3. brian d

    Jun 18, 2015 at 12:47 pm

    carl petterson is not popular…

  4. random guy

    Jun 18, 2015 at 11:31 am

    crazy how fickle golf is. improve 2 things in your game and three components get worse. refreshing to know it’s a struggle to put it all together even for top professionals….sigh

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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