32 Comments

1. 

   gus Terranova

   Apr 15, 2013 at 6:26 pm

   Fowler will never win a major.

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2. 

   harry

   Apr 15, 2013 at 8:15 am

   I’m impressed, 8 of the top 10 in your 23. Well played, and another 4 in the next 13. Please do this more often!

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3. 

   Rimrock

   Apr 11, 2013 at 9:35 am

   Great post. However, too many times I have seen Mickelson fade in the last round especially his putting. Also, he is older and physically I don’t know if he is up to 72 holes especially if it gets hot. Justin Rose would be my pick.

   Glad to see you didn’t put Tiger in there.

   As we all know, anyone can breakout and play over their heads but with the pressure of “The Masters”, the weather and the media (not to exclude playing golf itself) for me it is anyones guess and all the stats go into a cocked hat.

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4. 

   Chad

   Apr 10, 2013 at 11:41 pm

   Very good post. But how did Luke Donald escape your “too short to play well at Augusta” list?

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   • 

     Richie Hunt

     Apr 11, 2013 at 8:34 am

     The too short list is more about clubhead speed than actual distance. Luke is not long off the tee due to having a downward attack angle with the driver. But, he generates 110-111 mph of clubhead speed. Not super fast, but fast enough where he can contend.

     He is probably the most similar player to 2003 Mike Weir. Last year he struggled with his switch to new irons. But, if he can regain his iron play form from 2011, he has a shot with his putting and how forgiving the fairways and rough are at ANGC.

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5. 

   Brad

   Apr 10, 2013 at 8:37 pm

   John Merrick has played twice in The Masters. He missed the cut in 2010, but he had a t-6 (-8)in 2009.

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   • 

     Richie Hunt

     Apr 11, 2013 at 8:36 am

     Merrick is in that part of the list (along with Streelman) because I grouped players who fit one of the following criteria:

     1. First time invitee

     or

     2. Won their first Tour even this year.

     Both Merrick and Streelman are #2. I understand…it wasn’t really worded clearly.

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6. 

   Josh

   Apr 10, 2013 at 7:41 am

   Paddy Harrington has 2 top 10s in his last 2 starts worldwide. How can you claim he hasn’t done enough this year to qualify when Cabrera doesnt have a top 15 all yr

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   • 

     Richie Hunt

     Apr 10, 2013 at 9:54 am

     I didn’t put Cabrera in my top-10 either. But with Harrington his metrics haven’t been very strong in some key areas. I will say that I like where his game is headed from a statistical standpoint. Much better than it was a couple of years ago.

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7. 

   Brad

   Apr 10, 2013 at 12:00 am

   Great column Rich. Well done. You don’t think Hanson is playing well enough? He ticks a lot of key boxes this week (Driving Distance, scoring average, scrambling, par 5 performance).

   You also selected Shrek. Is this based on his danger zone play? The rest of his stats or just okay, he’s not that long, and his form is in question no?

   Lastly, no room for Adam Scott and Charl in your top 10? Great stats and distance numbers.

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   • 

     Richie Hunt

     Apr 10, 2013 at 9:52 am

     Stenson is in my top-10. He’s played fantastic this year from a ballstriking perspective and hits it a mile. Westwood’s main strength is from what I call the Safe Zone (shots from 125-175 yards). He’s usually pretty good from the Danger Zone as well and a very good driver.

     Last year he struggled from the Danger Zone for a while and then eventually improved from there. But, it cost him big events, particularly the US Open.

     This year he seems to be on track except for the putter.

     I like Schwartzel’s game from a statistical perspective a lot. But this year he just hasn’t gotten it going. And he ranked 66th out of 120 players from the Valero Open in my Driving Effectiveness ranking. I just think he’s not playing all that great for him at this moment.

     I really considered both Schwartzel and Scott. But with Scott he is another guy that hasn’t logged in a lot of rounds this year so there’s insufficient data. That’s not always a problem if the rest of the group hasn’t shown me much.

     But, Rickie Fowler’s metrics are quite strong this year. Dustin Johnson has struggled from the Danger Zone, but I think that was the entire winning the 1st tournament of the year and dating Paulina Gretzky. I think he’s getting back close to form and the course fits him pretty well. In particular, he’s putting quite well this year which is a scary thought with his game.

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8. 

   Alec Hilliard

   Apr 9, 2013 at 10:45 pm

   Id like sneds in the top 10, but thats just me, and im assuming that tiger and rory are in that top 10. (12) with them included

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   • 

     Richie Hunt

     Apr 11, 2013 at 8:40 am

     I liked Snedeker’s chances a few week ago, obviously. He’s a great putter and hits the ball high, which plays into Augusta. The problem for him is that he’s always been suspect from the Danger Zone and off the tee and that’s why I think he hasn’t won a major yet despite having the opportunity. We saw this at the Ryder Cup, particularly in the Furyk/Snedeker vs. Rory/McDowell 1st match. They tied it up and Sneds was teeing off #18 and put it into the woods. Somehow, Furyk got the blame for the loss.

     Anyway, he hasn’t played well since the rib injury and the courses he has played well at have fit his style (sans Torrey Pines, which he always plays well at for whatever reason).

     And yes, Tiger and Rory are included for a ‘top-12’, but the return on betting on them is too small for my tastes.

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9. 

   Troy Vayanos

   Apr 9, 2013 at 5:28 pm

   Great post Rich,

   Yes I had my top 5 in that list as well. Tiger is the number one choice for me but I see dangers in Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar, Justin Rose and Louis Oosthuizen. I expect all of them to be thereabouts come Sunday.

   I have this feeling Matt Kuchar is going to be in the top 3 again this year!

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10. 

    Socorr4

    Apr 9, 2013 at 5:03 pm

    Nerves aree fundamental for success at majors unless you’re lucky enough to slide in the back door. The big hitters have an advantage of putting for eagles on on par 5’s, but it’s rare to get the ball close enough for a realistic chance to pick up a stroke on the field on these four holes. The par 3’s are equal for all, so what the winner must do is hit consistently to within 20 feet on the par 4’s. Almost everyone will be using 7 irons or less to the majority of their second shots on these holes. Long hitters have an advantage because they’ll use shorter clubs to aim for the pin, but they sometimes lack the skills required to save par on any missed greens.

    As is almost always the case, it all comes down to putting, and whoever has the best reads throughout four days should win. You cast Tiger and Rory aside for a frivolous reason and at some risk. The next best putter on your list of 23 is Snedeker, and it’s not clear why you left him off the short list. Of those on the short list, I like Bradley unless the demons get to him, and especially DJ if he can keep his putting game under control.

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    • 

      Steven

      Apr 9, 2013 at 5:13 pm

      Snedeker has missed his last two cuts. He hasn’t been the same since his injury.

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11. 

    Brad P.

    Apr 9, 2013 at 3:50 pm

    Good analysis. Who is actually going to win though? Kuchar. And he’s not in your “Top 10”

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    • 

      Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2013 at 4:31 pm

      Kuchar was in my top-10 last year and came in 2nd. This year it’s hard to tell because he hasn’t logged many rounds and when he has, he’s been rather unspectacular. That doesn’t mean he can’t win because as players like Kuchar become more success, they log in less rounds. However, I’d rather pick players who have more data from this year and have performed well at key spots.

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12. 

    Gary Lewis

    Apr 9, 2013 at 1:01 pm

    I like your picks. I am hoping someone like Westwood will break through and win a major but always want Phil to win another one. If Tiger can drive the ball well enough he should have a good chance, but that has been a big problem for him of late. Should be very interesting, as it always is.

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13. 

    Steve

    Apr 9, 2013 at 12:50 pm

    Hmm, certainly a lot of thought put into this. Having said that, the majors are a completely different animal from regular tour events and personally I feel need to be analyzed differently.

    Removing Zach Johnson from the mix due to his short length is a bit silly really, given that he’s a past champion, but that’s already been mentioned.

    Also, while I agree that players competing in the Masters for the first time are at a disadvantage, I wouldn’t throw David Lynn under the bus quite so quickly as you did. Second place finish to Rory at last years PGA with flashes of form recently whisper to me that he could be up there. While of course I doubt he can win it, he is long odds and, in my eyes, a perfect E/W.

    In summary, I like your top ten, however I would replace DJ with Zach Johnson. Stenson is another one who I’d be a bit wobbly about, but he does seem to like Augusta National.

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    • 

      Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2013 at 1:01 pm

      First, Zach has not played well this year. But ANGC simply no longer allows short but accurate hitters to truly contend unless something happens with the weather. Look at the top-10 finishers over the past 3 years. Essentially, the shortest hitters in the bunch have been either KJ Choi, Poulter or Matt Kuchar who are about average to slightly below average in length. They were also great Danger Zone players in those years. And none of them won.

      Dustin Johnson concerns me because he has struggled from the Danger Zone this year. But he has been a top-10 player from that Distance throughout his entire career. I chalk it up to the ‘Paulina Gretzky flu’, but I think he’ll regain his old form (and he’s been playing better recently).

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14. 

    Rob

    Apr 9, 2013 at 12:44 pm

    Nice catch Ed! I agree with your comments about Tiger and his driving. That will be his downfall in the Masters and the other majors this year. I see another 0-4 record in 2013.

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16. 

    john

    Apr 9, 2013 at 12:20 pm

    You could have made it even easier and eliminated all but the one who is going to win it…Tiger, Tiger Woods yall!

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17. 

    Ed

    Apr 9, 2013 at 12:19 pm

    Craig Stadler did not win in his first appearance, but his 6th. Fuzzy Zoeller is the only modern player to win in his first appearance.

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    • 

      Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2013 at 12:55 pm

      Thanks for pointing that out as I got the two mixed up on a bad error on my part. With that said, it still proves the point that first time invitees do not fare well in winning the Green Jacket as Zoeller won back in ’79.

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18. 

    chris

    Apr 9, 2013 at 12:06 pm

    Nice job Rich. I would say you are spot on with the winner being…..Phil of course 🙂

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19. 

    Jason

    Apr 9, 2013 at 12:02 pm

    I don’t like how he cut out players that are “too short” to win the masters including Zach Johnson. Zach proved you don’t have to be long to win. He didn’t go for a single par 5 in two the year he won.

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    • 

      Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2013 at 12:53 pm

      Zach won when there was record cold temperatures at Augusta. That made the par-5’s less reachable for the long hitters and they had to use more wedges into those greens so the advantage shifted back towards Zach. The weather is supposed to be nice this week in Augusta outside of some late showers on Friday, so this does not bode well for short hitters.

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20. 

    Billy

    Apr 9, 2013 at 11:43 am

    Sorry missed Rickie in your top ten!

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21. 

    Billy

    Apr 9, 2013 at 11:43 am

    Interesting analysis. I like your top-ten, but I would opt for Rickie over Westwood. While Rickie may have a few more loose shots in his bag, I’ll pick Rickie’s putting over Westwood’s everyday. If Westwood can putt this week he’ll have a good chance, but he’s liable to have terrible putting.

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    • 

      Nik

      Apr 10, 2013 at 1:51 pm

      Rickie’s not that good of a putter. He putted well at Bay Hill but it kind of an anomaly.

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