Opinion & Analysis
The 23 golfers who can win the Masters
As the world’s most popular golf tournament plays this week, I wanted to give a rundown of the Masters from a statistical perspective.
First, I want to discuss what I call the “Critical Holes” in a golf tournament. These are holes that based on tournament history are where the top finishers have gained the most strokes versus the field. For Augusta, they are Nos. 7, 12, 15, 17 and 18. So as you are tracking the tournament, I would key in on these particular holes as they have the largest influence on a golfer’s success at Augusta.
The neat thing about the Masters is it is a limited field, and we can immediately eliminate about one fifth of the field as not having a realistic chance of winning the tournament. I would put these as most of the past champions and the amateurs.
- Ben Crenshaw
- Bernhard Langer
- Craig Stadler
- Fred Couples
- Ian Woosnam
- Jose Maria Olazabal
- Larry Mize
- Mark O’Meara
- Mike Weir
- Sandy Lyle
- Tom Watson
- Alan Dunbar
- Michael Weaver
- Steven Fox
- T. J. Vogel
- Tianlang Guan
- Nathan Smith
I would also eliminate the following:
- Players who are first-time invitees
- Players whose first Tour win came this year
Since 1935, only one winner has won The Masters in his first appearance; Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. So I would shy away from picking these players:
- Branden Grace
- David Lynn
- George Coetzee
- Jamie Donaldson
- John Huh
- John Peterson
- Nicolas Colsaerts
- Russell Henley
- Scott Piercy
- Ted Potter Jr.
- Thaworn Wiratchant
- Thorbjørn Olesen
- Kevin Streelman
- John Merrick
No. 12 at Augusta National, a par 3 that is one of Hunt’s “Critical Holes” for a Masters Champion.
I would also eliminate players who missed the cut at the Valero Open this past week:
- David Toms
- Gonzalo Fdez-Castano
I will also filter out the European Tour players that I do not have substantial data on:
- Thomas Bjorn
- Paul Lawrie
- Richard Sterne
- Francesco Molinari
Now, we start to get to the nitty-gritty of Augusta. Over the past 10 years, Augusta has heavily favored long hitters who hit the ball well from what I call “The Danger Zone.”
The Danger Zone is approach shots from 175- to 225 yards. This is the biggest key because without quality Danger Zone play at the Masters, the golfer will not be successful.
While Augusta National is known for its greens, the make percentage on putts is fairly high from inside 15 feet; likely due to the excellent putting surfaces. The real difficulty on the greens at Augusta is from longer than 20 feet away.
Between the undulations and the super-fast green speed, it becomes a task to not 3-putt on long putts at Augusta. The big reason why long hitters do so well at Augusta now is that the course plays like a par 68 for them, and that allows them to get away with putting worse. So, if a player is not long, they had been bring their putting and Danger Zone play with them. If a player is long, they can get away with lesser putting.
First, I will eliminate the players that I think are too short to play well at Augusta National:
- Tim Clark
- Brian Gay
- Jim Furyk
- Matteo Manassero
- Ben Curtis
- Kevin Na
- Hiroyuki Fujita
- Zach Johnson
I will also take out the players that have struggled from the Danger Zone this year.
- Martin Kaymer
- Ryan Moore
- Ian Poulter
- Steve Stricker
- Hunter Mahan
- Jason Dufner
- Ryo Ishikawa
- Fredrik Jacobson
- Trevor Immelman
- Jason Day
Also, Augusta National does not take too kindly to low ball hitters.
Graeme McDowell’s only major championship win came at the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, where his low ball flight helped him control the ball in the wind.
- John Senden
- Carl Pettersson
- Graeme McDowell
- Stewart Cink
- D.A. Points
These players simply have not done much this season to warrant a pick:
- Robert Garrigus
- Lucas Glover
- Retief Goosen
- Peter Hanson
- Padraig Harrington
- Vijay Singh
- Michael Thompson
- Bo Van Pelt
- Ernie Els
- Webb Simpson
That brings us down to 23 players:
- Keegan Bradley
- Angel Cabrera
- K.J. Choi
- Luke Donald
- Rickie Fowler
- Sergio Garcia
- Bill Haas
- Dustin Johnson
- Matt Kuchar
- Martin Laird
- Marc Leishman
- Rory McIlroy
- Phil Mickelson
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Justin Rose
- Charl Schwartzel
- Adam Scott
- Brandt Snedeker
- Henrik Stenson
- Nick Watney
- Bubba Watson
- Lee Westwood
- Tiger Woods
I don’t pick players that are better than 10/1 odds, so that means Tiger (7/2) and Rory McIlroy (8/1) are out. But, let’s take a look at Tiger’s key metrics so far this year:
- Driving Effectiveness: 108th
- Birdie Zone (75-125 yards): 41st
- Safe Zone (125-175 yards): 46th
- Danger Zone (175-225 yards): 43rd
- Short Game (1-20 yards): 20th
- Strokes Gained Putting: 1st
While Tiger has been extremely successful this year, his effectiveness of the tee should be a concern. Furthermore, he’s been much more conservative off the tee by leaving his driver in the bag more often than he was last year.
The reason for Tiger’s success this year is due to his putting. Not only is he making a lot of putts, but he’s No. 1 in putts made from 15- to 25 feet. Typically, putts made from more than 15 feet on Tour is a ‘volatile’ metric. Meaning, a player can rank well in putts made from longer than 15 feet one month and then rankly poorly the next month.
With Tiger’s conservative nature off the tee, he’s giving up a lot of yards to the elite players on Tour. But, between his strong iron play and incredible long putting, he is able to find the green and make putts.
Tiger Woods puts the Green Jacket on 2003 Masters winner Mike Weir.
His game reminds me a bit of Mike Weir’s game in 2003 when Weir was a mediocre driver of the ball, but a top-5 player from 125-200 yards and a top-5 putter in the world. However, Weir needed soft conditions to help him win a Green Jacket. While Tiger hits the ball much longer than Weir did in 2003, I just tend to think that he’s leaving too much to risk if he goes conservative off the tee. I can understand making Tiger a favorite, but I think he’s more realistically a 9/1 odds or so to win.
And with that, here are my top-10 picks (Rory and Tiger excluded):
Phil Mickelson (10/1)
Justin Rose (20/1)
Dustin Johnson (25/1)
Lee Westwood (25/1)
Louis Oosthuizen (25/1)
Keegan Bradley (28/1)
Rickie Fowler (45/1)
Henrik Stenson (50/1)
Nick Watney (50/1)
Bill Haas (75/1)
Now it’s time to sit back and enjoy the show.
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
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gus Terranova
Apr 15, 2013 at 6:26 pm
Fowler will never win a major.
harry
Apr 15, 2013 at 8:15 am
I’m impressed, 8 of the top 10 in your 23. Well played, and another 4 in the next 13. Please do this more often!
Rimrock
Apr 11, 2013 at 9:35 am
Great post. However, too many times I have seen Mickelson fade in the last round especially his putting. Also, he is older and physically I don’t know if he is up to 72 holes especially if it gets hot. Justin Rose would be my pick.
Glad to see you didn’t put Tiger in there.
As we all know, anyone can breakout and play over their heads but with the pressure of “The Masters”, the weather and the media (not to exclude playing golf itself) for me it is anyones guess and all the stats go into a cocked hat.
Chad
Apr 10, 2013 at 11:41 pm
Very good post. But how did Luke Donald escape your “too short to play well at Augusta” list?
Richie Hunt
Apr 11, 2013 at 8:34 am
The too short list is more about clubhead speed than actual distance. Luke is not long off the tee due to having a downward attack angle with the driver. But, he generates 110-111 mph of clubhead speed. Not super fast, but fast enough where he can contend.
He is probably the most similar player to 2003 Mike Weir. Last year he struggled with his switch to new irons. But, if he can regain his iron play form from 2011, he has a shot with his putting and how forgiving the fairways and rough are at ANGC.
Brad
Apr 10, 2013 at 8:37 pm
John Merrick has played twice in The Masters. He missed the cut in 2010, but he had a t-6 (-8)in 2009.
Richie Hunt
Apr 11, 2013 at 8:36 am
Merrick is in that part of the list (along with Streelman) because I grouped players who fit one of the following criteria:
1. First time invitee
or
2. Won their first Tour even this year.
Both Merrick and Streelman are #2. I understand…it wasn’t really worded clearly.
Josh
Apr 10, 2013 at 7:41 am
Paddy Harrington has 2 top 10s in his last 2 starts worldwide. How can you claim he hasn’t done enough this year to qualify when Cabrera doesnt have a top 15 all yr
Richie Hunt
Apr 10, 2013 at 9:54 am
I didn’t put Cabrera in my top-10 either. But with Harrington his metrics haven’t been very strong in some key areas. I will say that I like where his game is headed from a statistical standpoint. Much better than it was a couple of years ago.
Brad
Apr 10, 2013 at 12:00 am
Great column Rich. Well done. You don’t think Hanson is playing well enough? He ticks a lot of key boxes this week (Driving Distance, scoring average, scrambling, par 5 performance).
You also selected Shrek. Is this based on his danger zone play? The rest of his stats or just okay, he’s not that long, and his form is in question no?
Lastly, no room for Adam Scott and Charl in your top 10? Great stats and distance numbers.
Richie Hunt
Apr 10, 2013 at 9:52 am
Stenson is in my top-10. He’s played fantastic this year from a ballstriking perspective and hits it a mile. Westwood’s main strength is from what I call the Safe Zone (shots from 125-175 yards). He’s usually pretty good from the Danger Zone as well and a very good driver.
Last year he struggled from the Danger Zone for a while and then eventually improved from there. But, it cost him big events, particularly the US Open.
This year he seems to be on track except for the putter.
I like Schwartzel’s game from a statistical perspective a lot. But this year he just hasn’t gotten it going. And he ranked 66th out of 120 players from the Valero Open in my Driving Effectiveness ranking. I just think he’s not playing all that great for him at this moment.
I really considered both Schwartzel and Scott. But with Scott he is another guy that hasn’t logged in a lot of rounds this year so there’s insufficient data. That’s not always a problem if the rest of the group hasn’t shown me much.
But, Rickie Fowler’s metrics are quite strong this year. Dustin Johnson has struggled from the Danger Zone, but I think that was the entire winning the 1st tournament of the year and dating Paulina Gretzky. I think he’s getting back close to form and the course fits him pretty well. In particular, he’s putting quite well this year which is a scary thought with his game.
Alec Hilliard
Apr 9, 2013 at 10:45 pm
Id like sneds in the top 10, but thats just me, and im assuming that tiger and rory are in that top 10. (12) with them included
Richie Hunt
Apr 11, 2013 at 8:40 am
I liked Snedeker’s chances a few week ago, obviously. He’s a great putter and hits the ball high, which plays into Augusta. The problem for him is that he’s always been suspect from the Danger Zone and off the tee and that’s why I think he hasn’t won a major yet despite having the opportunity. We saw this at the Ryder Cup, particularly in the Furyk/Snedeker vs. Rory/McDowell 1st match. They tied it up and Sneds was teeing off #18 and put it into the woods. Somehow, Furyk got the blame for the loss.
Anyway, he hasn’t played well since the rib injury and the courses he has played well at have fit his style (sans Torrey Pines, which he always plays well at for whatever reason).
And yes, Tiger and Rory are included for a ‘top-12’, but the return on betting on them is too small for my tastes.
Troy Vayanos
Apr 9, 2013 at 5:28 pm
Great post Rich,
Yes I had my top 5 in that list as well. Tiger is the number one choice for me but I see dangers in Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar, Justin Rose and Louis Oosthuizen. I expect all of them to be thereabouts come Sunday.
I have this feeling Matt Kuchar is going to be in the top 3 again this year!
Socorr4
Apr 9, 2013 at 5:03 pm
Nerves aree fundamental for success at majors unless you’re lucky enough to slide in the back door. The big hitters have an advantage of putting for eagles on on par 5’s, but it’s rare to get the ball close enough for a realistic chance to pick up a stroke on the field on these four holes. The par 3’s are equal for all, so what the winner must do is hit consistently to within 20 feet on the par 4’s. Almost everyone will be using 7 irons or less to the majority of their second shots on these holes. Long hitters have an advantage because they’ll use shorter clubs to aim for the pin, but they sometimes lack the skills required to save par on any missed greens.
As is almost always the case, it all comes down to putting, and whoever has the best reads throughout four days should win. You cast Tiger and Rory aside for a frivolous reason and at some risk. The next best putter on your list of 23 is Snedeker, and it’s not clear why you left him off the short list. Of those on the short list, I like Bradley unless the demons get to him, and especially DJ if he can keep his putting game under control.
Steven
Apr 9, 2013 at 5:13 pm
Snedeker has missed his last two cuts. He hasn’t been the same since his injury.
Brad P.
Apr 9, 2013 at 3:50 pm
Good analysis. Who is actually going to win though? Kuchar. And he’s not in your “Top 10”
Richie Hunt
Apr 9, 2013 at 4:31 pm
Kuchar was in my top-10 last year and came in 2nd. This year it’s hard to tell because he hasn’t logged many rounds and when he has, he’s been rather unspectacular. That doesn’t mean he can’t win because as players like Kuchar become more success, they log in less rounds. However, I’d rather pick players who have more data from this year and have performed well at key spots.
Gary Lewis
Apr 9, 2013 at 1:01 pm
I like your picks. I am hoping someone like Westwood will break through and win a major but always want Phil to win another one. If Tiger can drive the ball well enough he should have a good chance, but that has been a big problem for him of late. Should be very interesting, as it always is.
Steve
Apr 9, 2013 at 12:50 pm
Hmm, certainly a lot of thought put into this. Having said that, the majors are a completely different animal from regular tour events and personally I feel need to be analyzed differently.
Removing Zach Johnson from the mix due to his short length is a bit silly really, given that he’s a past champion, but that’s already been mentioned.
Also, while I agree that players competing in the Masters for the first time are at a disadvantage, I wouldn’t throw David Lynn under the bus quite so quickly as you did. Second place finish to Rory at last years PGA with flashes of form recently whisper to me that he could be up there. While of course I doubt he can win it, he is long odds and, in my eyes, a perfect E/W.
In summary, I like your top ten, however I would replace DJ with Zach Johnson. Stenson is another one who I’d be a bit wobbly about, but he does seem to like Augusta National.
Richie Hunt
Apr 9, 2013 at 1:01 pm
First, Zach has not played well this year. But ANGC simply no longer allows short but accurate hitters to truly contend unless something happens with the weather. Look at the top-10 finishers over the past 3 years. Essentially, the shortest hitters in the bunch have been either KJ Choi, Poulter or Matt Kuchar who are about average to slightly below average in length. They were also great Danger Zone players in those years. And none of them won.
Dustin Johnson concerns me because he has struggled from the Danger Zone this year. But he has been a top-10 player from that Distance throughout his entire career. I chalk it up to the ‘Paulina Gretzky flu’, but I think he’ll regain his old form (and he’s been playing better recently).
Rob
Apr 9, 2013 at 12:44 pm
Nice catch Ed! I agree with your comments about Tiger and his driving. That will be his downfall in the Masters and the other majors this year. I see another 0-4 record in 2013.
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john
Apr 9, 2013 at 12:20 pm
You could have made it even easier and eliminated all but the one who is going to win it…Tiger, Tiger Woods yall!
Ed
Apr 9, 2013 at 12:19 pm
Craig Stadler did not win in his first appearance, but his 6th. Fuzzy Zoeller is the only modern player to win in his first appearance.
Richie Hunt
Apr 9, 2013 at 12:55 pm
Thanks for pointing that out as I got the two mixed up on a bad error on my part. With that said, it still proves the point that first time invitees do not fare well in winning the Green Jacket as Zoeller won back in ’79.
chris
Apr 9, 2013 at 12:06 pm
Nice job Rich. I would say you are spot on with the winner being…..Phil of course 🙂
Jason
Apr 9, 2013 at 12:02 pm
I don’t like how he cut out players that are “too short” to win the masters including Zach Johnson. Zach proved you don’t have to be long to win. He didn’t go for a single par 5 in two the year he won.
Richie Hunt
Apr 9, 2013 at 12:53 pm
Zach won when there was record cold temperatures at Augusta. That made the par-5’s less reachable for the long hitters and they had to use more wedges into those greens so the advantage shifted back towards Zach. The weather is supposed to be nice this week in Augusta outside of some late showers on Friday, so this does not bode well for short hitters.
Billy
Apr 9, 2013 at 11:43 am
Sorry missed Rickie in your top ten!
Billy
Apr 9, 2013 at 11:43 am
Interesting analysis. I like your top-ten, but I would opt for Rickie over Westwood. While Rickie may have a few more loose shots in his bag, I’ll pick Rickie’s putting over Westwood’s everyday. If Westwood can putt this week he’ll have a good chance, but he’s liable to have terrible putting.
Nik
Apr 10, 2013 at 1:51 pm
Rickie’s not that good of a putter. He putted well at Bay Hill but it kind of an anomaly.